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招银国际:给予深南电路持有评级,目标价位96.6元

2022-10-26 00:39:46 1263

摘要:招银国际Alex Ng,Lily Yang,Lana Lin近期对深南电路进行研究并发布了研究报告《3Q could be lower despite satisfactory 2Q results》,本报告对深南电路给出持有评级,认为其目...

招银国际Alex Ng,Lily Yang,Lana Lin近期对深南电路进行研究并发布了研究报告《3Q could be lower despite satisfactory 2Q results》,本报告对深南电路给出持有评级,认为其目标价位为96.60元,当前股价为93.25元,预期上涨幅度为3.59%。

深南电路(002916)

Shennan Circuits’ 2Q22 revenue/NP to shareholders grew 15.8%/33.1% YoY and 10.3%/16.2% QoQ. GPM stabled at 26%+ (vs. 22.5%-24.6% for 1Q21-4Q21), benefiting from easing material cost pressure and product structure adjustment.For 2022, Prismark forecasts PCB market to grow 4.2% YoY, moderate growth after significant growth of 24.1% YoY in 2021. Again, substrate market will lead the growth. For Shennan, we expect the PCB/substrate sales to grow 8.8%/18.9% respectively, driven by capacity ramp up and growing demand from auto markets. Total revenue growth is estimated at 7.7% for 2022. Overall, we think the Company will continue to face challenges, such as 1) slowdown of domestic 5G telecom capex, 2) delayed upgrade for Eagle stream platform, 3) soft consumer demand. We maintain HOLD and lower our TP to RMB96.6.

Although auto PCB capacity is ramping up and segment margin improves, PCB segment outlook remains cautious. PCB sales grew 19.6% YoY in 2Q, due to growing demand from telecom (mainly overseas), datacenter and auto electronics markets. As Nantong phase III factory is ramping up capacity, we believe auto PCB sales will deliver decent growth this year. Meanwhile, material price is declining from the peak, which helps Shennan’s PCB GPM improve to 27.3% in 1H22 (vs. 24.8% in 2H21). However, we maintain our cautious outlook, given detailed timeline of 5G deployment and upgrade of new datacenter platform is still unclear. Although the strong growth from auto PCB could partially offset these impacts, its revenue contribution is still insignificant (est. <5% in 2021).

Substrate demand weakening and supply chain constraint is easing.Substrate sales grew 24.8% YoY in 1H22, mainly driven by new capacity released from Wuxi Phase II factory. The results was solid, after a good year for substrate in 2021 (segment rev. growth of 56.3% YoY). However, we think the unbalanced supply/demand situation is improving as consumer demand is weakening.

Maintain HOLD and lower TP to RMB96.6 We think Shennan is doing its best to navigate through macro uncertainties. However, we maintain our cautious outlook for PCB segment and lowered our FY22/23E EPS forecasts by 9%/12%. TP cut to RMB96.6, equal to 23x FY23E P/E, ~1SD below avg. 2-yr historical forward P/E. Potential upside: 1) stronger recovery in consumer demand, 2) resumed 5G deployment and Eagle steam platform upgrade.

证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算,开源证券林承瑜研究员团队对该股研究较为深入,近三年预测准确度均值高达89.17%,其预测2022年度归属净利润为盈利17.7亿,根据现价换算的预测PE为26.92。

最新盈利预测明细如下:

该股最近90天内共有10家机构给出评级,买入评级9家,增持评级1家;过去90天内机构目标均价为116.73。根据近五年财报数据,证券之星估值分析工具显示,深南电路(002916)行业内竞争力的护城河良好,盈利能力优秀,营收成长性良好。财务可能有隐忧,须重点关注的财务指标包括:货币资金/总资产率、应收账款/利润率。该股好公司指标3.5星,好价格指标3星,综合指标3星。(指标仅供参考,指标范围:0 ~ 5星,最高5星)

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